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2009/11/13 Find Out Your Favourite Sense - Visual, Auditory or Kinesthetic?Came across this very interesting thing when reading a book today. Give it a try, my friends =)
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What's Your Favourite Sense? - Visual, Auditory or Kinesthetic? Because we receive our information from the outside primarily in pictures, sounds and feelings, these are the three ways in which we can be inspired: by something we see externally, or internally in our mind's eye as an image or a vision; by something we hear either externally or emanating from that little voice inside; or by something we feel or touch. Usually it's a combination of these experiences that helps us interpret the outside world, but one of these three senses—sight, sound or touch—tends to dominate the other two.
To the untrained eye (or ear), all of us look, sound and feel just like ordinary folks; however, to the trained person there are subtle but important differences. As you might imagine, an individual who gives primary importance to the way things look will be concerned with and influenced by appearances. Similarly, someone to whom sound is important will respond to the way things sound, and a person who experiences the world through physical sensations will be concerned with the way things feel, both internally and externally, through touch.
Of course, no one is totally Visual, utterly Auditory or 100% Kinesthetic. Naturally, we are a mixture of all three. Yet, in every person, one of these systems (rather like left- or right-handedness) dominates the other two. Studies have shown that as many as 55% of all people in our culture are motivated primarily by what they see (Visual), 15% by what they hear (Auditory) and 30% by physical sensation (Kinesthetic).
Take the following self-test, and you'll begin to see why you connect easily with some people when you first meet them but not at all with others, and why you feel as if you know certain people even though you've never seen them before. It comes down to natural sensory harmony. When two Visuals meet, they are familiar to each other because they see things the same way (this doesn't mean they agree) and express their experiences in the same way. The same goes for two Auditories or two Kinesthetics. On the other hand, if the person you meet sees, hears or feels the world in a different way from yours, you need to learn how to recognize that fact and how to adapt and tune in to his or her wavelength to establish rapport that can lead to a meaningful friendship or relationship.
Self-Test:
1) If only three rooms are left at a beach resort, I'll choose the room that offers
a) An ocean view but lots of noise. b) Sounds of the ocean but no view. c) Comfort but lots of noise and no view. 2) When I have a problem,
a) I look for alternatives. b) I talk about the problem. c) I rearrange the details. 3) When riding in a car, I want the inside to
a) Look good. b) Sound quiet or powerful. c) Feel comfortable or secure. 4) When I explain a concert or event I've just attended, I first a) Describe how it looked. b)Tell people how it sounded, c) Convey the feeling. 5) In my spare time, I most enjoy a) Watching TV or going to the movies. b) Reading or listening to music. c) Doing something physical (crafts/ gardening) or playing a sport. 6) The one thing I personally believe everyone should experience in his or her lifetime is
a) Sight. b)Sound, c) Feeling. 7) Of the following activities, I spend the most time indulging in
a) Daydreaming. b) Listening to my thoughts. c) Picking up on my feelings. 8) When someone is trying to convince me of something, a) I want to see evidence or proof. b) I talk myself through it. c) I trust my intuition. 9) I usually speak and think a) Quickly. b) Moderately. c) Slowly. 10) I normally breathe from
a) High in my chest. b) Low in my chest. c) My belly. 11) When finding my way around an unfamiliar city,
a) I use a map. a) I ask for directions, c) I trust my intuition. 12) When I choose clothes, it is most important to me that
a) I look immaculate. b) I make a personal statement about my personality. c) I feel comfortable. 13) When I choose a restaurant, my main concern is that
a) It look impressive. b) I can hear myself talk. c) I will be comfortable. 14) I make decisions a) Quickly. b) Moderately. c) Slowly. Tally:
a's = b's = c's = a) is Visual, b) is Auditory and c) is Kinesthetic. The higher the number in each category, the stronger the tendency. By the way, I seem to be Kinesthetic. =p 2005/11/21 Chinese Leader Gives President a Mixed Messagesource: New York Times
By DAVID E. SANGER and JOSEPH KAHN
Published: November 21, 2005 BEIJING, Nov. 20 - In a day of polite but tense encounters, President Hu Jintao of China told President Bush on Sunday that he was willing to move more quickly to ease economic differences with the United States, but he gave no ground on increasing political freedoms. Skip to next paragraph
Although American officials described the leaders as more comfortable with each other on Sunday than in any previous encounter, Mr. Hu made clear, by his words and his government's actions, that he had no intention of giving in to American pressure. Even during Mr. Bush's visit, there were reports of new moves against dissidents and other activists. American officials said none of the human rights cases on a list President Bush gave to Mr. Hu at their first meeting this year had been resolved by the time Mr. Bush stepped into the Great Hall of the People on Sunday morning. He had met with the Chinese leader in New York in September, when world leaders gathered for the opening of the United Nations General Assembly. By afternoon, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, meeting with reporters, acknowledged that China appeared to have put dissidents under house arrest or detained them in advance of the trip. She said the issue was being raised "quite vociferously with the Chinese government." Meeting with reporters in the evening, Mr. Bush said his talks had amounted to a "good, frank discussion," but he seemed unsatisfied. He chose his words about Mr. Hu carefully and repeated that the relationship with China was "complex," though later he added that it is "good, vibrant, strong." "China is a trading partner, and we expect the trade with China to be fair," he said. "We expect our people to be treated fairly here in this important country." On economic issues that are of major concern to American businesses - letting market forces set the value of the undervalued Chinese currency and protecting intellectual property from rampant piracy in China - Mr. Bush made marginal progress. He secured a public statement from Mr. Hu that he would "unswervingly press ahead" to ease a $200 billion annual trade surplus that wildly outstrips anything Mr. Bush's father faced with Japan in the late 1980's. But Mr. Hu set no schedule for further currency moves, which are politically unpopular in China because they would make Chinese goods less competitive abroad. An American participant in the meetings said it was clear that "no Chinese leader was going to act immediately under the pressure" of a request from a foreign leader. Mr. Bush attended a service early Sunday morning at a state-sanctioned Protestant church near Tiananmen Square, saying afterward, "My hope is that the government of China will not fear Christians who gather to worship openly." But religious activists in Beijing complained that dozens of Christians who had wanted to worship alongside Mr. Bush had been turned away or detained by Chinese security forces. Christians in Shanghai and several other cities said the police had detained people who belong to underground churches to prevent them from staging demonstrations for greater religious freedom during Mr. Bush's visit. Dozens of political activists, including Bao Tong, a former senior Communist Party official who has become an outspoken critic of one-party rule, and Hu Jia, who has pressed for greater action to combat AIDS, were forbidden to leave their homes or use their telephones while Mr. Bush was in Beijing, according to people close to Mr. Bao and Mr. Hu who said they could not be identified because of possible retaliation by the Chinese government. Mr. Bush, as he has through much of his trip to Asia, continued to focus attention on Iraq. Meeting with reporters, he talked at length about the arguments that have consumed Washington in his absence, saying that members of the House or Senate who oppose his approach to Iraq have a right to dissent but also "a responsibility to provide a credible alternative." "Leaving prematurely will have terrible consequences, for our own security and for the Iraqi people," he said, applauding Congress for voting down last week a resolution supporting immediate withdrawal. "And that's not going to happen so long as I'm president." If finding a way out of Iraq is an immediate problem for Mr. Bush, dealing with China's increasingly assertive tone on economic and military issues, and with Mr. Hu's quiet resistance to Washington's calls for political liberalization, are challenges that will last far beyond his presidency. After a day of talks that began with a 90-minute meeting inside the Great Hall of the People, Mr. Bush emerged with little progress to report beyond a $4 billion deal for China to buy 70 Boeing aircraft. Even that agreement seemed highly preliminary. One person with detailed knowledge of the negotiations said the actual contract, including the price tag for each aircraft, was still being discussed. He declined to be identified because of the commercial sensitivity of the pending contract. That strongly suggested that the deal had been announced ahead of time to provide an upbeat note for the White House during Mr. Bush's visit. Mr. Bush seemed tense during much of the day. When a reporter asked him about that later, he said, "Have you ever heard of jet lag?" After ending his brief meeting with reporters, the president turned around and tried to go out a door that was locked. Turning back to reporters, he said, joking: "I was trying to escape. It didn't work." But if he lagged at times during the day, he seemed renewed after going mountain biking on Sunday afternoon. He had more company than on his usual weekend forays in Washington. He took his Trek bicycle out with the Chinese athletes training for the 2008 Olympics. "It is clear that I couldn't make the Chinese cycling team," Mr. Bush told reporters tonight, although his hosts did let him take the lead. American officials had set low expectations for what Mr. Bush might accomplish beyond deepening his relationship with Mr. Hu, a man he had expected would embrace reforms more quickly than his predecessor, Jiang Zemin. But while administration officials emphasized that they felt that the two men had begun to develop a personal chemistry that made it easier to grapple with trade, currency and geopolitical problems, none of that comity was on public display. Mr. Hu, who almost never interacts with either the Chinese or the foreign news media, declined what a Bush administration official described as a request to take questions from reporters after their meeting. The Foreign Ministry spokesman, Kong Quan, attributed Mr. Hu's silence to his visitor's tight schedule, though Mr. Bush managed to hold news conferences with the prime minister of Japan and the president of South Korea last week. On Sunday, Mr. Hu and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao detailed for Mr. Bush steps they were taking to curb the theft of movies, software and similar goods, emphasizing that they believed that those moves were necessary to develop the Chinese economy. United States officials have expressed frustration that while Mr. Hu and his predecessors have made similar commitments before, progress has been maddeningly slow. Had Mr. Bush stepped a few hundred yards away from his meetings in the Great Hall of the People and into the shops off Tiananmen Square - a place he avoided being photographed, American officials said, because of the still raw memories of protesters being shot there in 1989 - he could have paid the equivalent of a few dollars for the DVD's of several current American movies and what appeared to be a working copy of the Microsoft Windows XP operating system. On the status of Taiwan, Mr. Hu would brook no compromise. "We will by no means tolerate Taiwan independence," he told Mr. Bush, at a moment the administration has been wary of China's missile buildup along the coast opposite Taiwan. The Chinese also appeared to completely rebuff efforts by the administration to win some concessions on human rights issues. None of the journalists, business leaders or political dissidents who the United States has claimed were unjustly imprisoned or persecuted by Chinese authorities were released. China often makes at least modest concessions on human rights ahead of a presidential visit. But Mr. Hu, who has led a concerted and sustained crackdown on intellectual and news media freedoms since he took power in 2002, has shown little inclination to make the kinds of gestures that his predecessors did. Asked if the Chinese were trying to send Washington a message, Ms. Rice said: "I don't think this has anything to do with particular Chinese attitudes of this leadership. I expect that this leadership will understand, as the former leadership did, that these are issues of concern to the president, concern to Americans, and that we'll keep pressing on human rights." Mr. Bush said that he and Mr. Hu had also discussed strategies for handling the potential outbreak of avian flu and the long-running talks on nuclear disarmament for North Korea. 2005/11/18 Peter Drucker's Legacy Includes Simple Advice: It's All About the PeopleWSJ.com November 14, 2005
Theory & Practice
Peter Drucker's Legacy Includes Simple Advice: It's All About the People By SCOTT THURM and JOANN S. LUBLIN Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL November 14, 2005; Page B1 Peter Drucker was the most influential management thinker of the past
century. But his most crucial insights were about workers. Mr. Drucker, who died Friday at age 95, was among the first to see the limits of large industrial organizations and their authoritarian hierarchies. Long before the Internet, before even the first computer chips, he foresaw the arrival of "knowledge workers" motivated by personal pride as much as by fear and a paycheck. Harnessing their talents, he argued, required a new approach to management. He dispensed this advice in simple prose in 39 books over a remarkable 60-year career, and in probing conversations with scores of executives. Along the way, he developed a loyal following among many of the world's most-famous corporate chieftains, and became the model of the modern management guru, a craft he plied far more modestly than many of his successors. While Mr. Drucker's eclectic interests ran from European history to Japanese art, his management teachings centered on ways to make workers more effective. David A. Jones, co-founder and retired chairman and chief executive of Humana Inc., a Louisville, Ky., health insurer, recalls the core of Mr. Drucker's advice this way: "Successful enterprises create the conditions to allow their employees to do their best work." Mr. Drucker offered plenty of other lessons, of course. He believed organizations should articulate a clear purpose, with specific, measurable goals; he developed the concept of "management by objective," to keep managers in step with those goals; he encouraged managers to ask unspoken questions and consider ignored issues. His interests weren't limited to profit-seeking corporations. Mr. Drucker viewed nonprofit organizations as social linchpins, and devoted entire books to management of these groups. "He had the anthropologist's insight into this strange tribe [of managers] that had these formal rituals and strange practices," says Michael Useem, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, and an author of several books on management and leadership. "Peter Drucker was able to see behind them, and also see what could be changed and made for the better." Mr. Drucker contributed much to the modern cult of the chief executive. Yet as an emigrant from Nazi Europe, he retained a lifelong distrust of charismatic leaders. "He was skeptical of hero worship," says John Alexander, president of the Center for Creative Leadership in Greensboro, N.C. "He saw management as an activity rather than a heroic venture." Mr. Drucker's varied interests led him to predictions that gave him a reputation of a visionary in some circles. Warren Bennis, a University of Southern California business professor and author of more than two dozen books about leadership and related subjects, recalls Mr. Drucker warning him 15 years ago about coming social disruptions because of shrinking populations in Western Europe. In 1987, when Japan's roaring economy was the envy of the world, Mr. Drucker saw trouble ahead. "The pillar of their success -- lifetime employment -- is becoming an almost insurmountable barrier to flexibility," he said. Skeptics, and there were few, who studied his record said that Mr. Drucker was wrong as often as he was right, and had a penchant for twisting anecdotes in the retelling. But that did little to shake the faith of several generations of CEOs. Mr. Drucker's impact was so profound that most of them still remember the first time they read, or met, him. WORDS OF WISDOM Read samples of Peter Drucker's insights into management and selected writings 1 for The Wall Street Journal. ?Review & Outlook: Drucker on Everything2 11/14/2005 ? The American CEO3 12/30/2004 ?The Rules of Executive Class4 10/01/2004 ?The Rise, Fall and Return of Pluralism5 06/01/1999 For Humana's Mr. Jones, it was in 1974, when his colleague Wendell Cherry bought one of Mr. Drucker's books at an airport to help pass the time of a flight delay. "Wendell called me and said, 'Some guy wrote a book about us," Mr. Jones recalls. The two finished the book, "Management, Tasks, Responsibilities, Practices," in a weekend, then called Mr. Drucker on Monday morning. A few weeks later, the pair flew to Mr. Drucker's home in Claremont, Calif. There, Mr. Jones quickly learned the cornerstone of Mr. Drucker's style: "He never really answered questions. He always asked them." Still, Mr. Jones was sufficiently impressed that he repeated the pilgrimage annually for more than a decade. He recalls two preachings: That profit is a requirement for a company, but should not be a goal in itself; and that productivity and quality are effectively the same thing. "A day or two spent with Peter was the most valuable way I could spend my time," Mr. Jones says. Dan W. Lufkin, co-founder of the Wall Street investment firm Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette, encountered Mr. Drucker's unusual style during their first meeting, in the early 1960s, just as DLJ was just getting off the ground. Mr. Drucker, who spoke with an Austrian accent, initially seemed "formal and authoritarian," Mr. Lufkin recalls. "I asked him if he thought we should sell a certain product or do a certain strategy, but all he said was 'I don't know' to every question I posed," he recalls. "So finally I asked, 'what am I hiring you for?' " Mr. Lufkin says. In response, Mr. Drucker said, "I'm not going to give you any answers, because there are always many different ways to approach problems, but I'm going to give you the questions you should ask,' " Mr. Lufkin says. "So we started talking in great length and depth about who we were and what we wanted to do -- and I can't tell you how important he was to the development of the firm," Mr. Lufkin says. For Andrew Grove, the retired chairman and chief executive of Intel Corp., the Peter Drucker moment came in the late 1970s, when he ran across a book that Mr. Drucker had published about a decade earlier. The book included a chapter on the multiple roles of a CEO: the public face of the company, a strategist and an operational manager. Mr. Grove says the descriptions echoed the way that he and two other Intel co-founders, Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore, had unconsciously divided the duties at the top of the semiconductor maker: Mr. Noyce as the public face, Mr. Moore as "a man of thought," and Mr. Grove as "a man of action." Mr. Grove says he ran to a copy machine and distributed copies of the chapter to Messrs. Noyce and Moore. At the time, Mr. Grove says, he was a "young manager, very skeptical about management gurus and consultants." Nonetheless, he says Mr. Drucker's writings "spoke to me." He was so impressed that Mr. Grove drove an hour from Intel's Silicon Valley offices to San Francisco to watch that era's motivational video -- a three-hour movie of Mr. Drucker speaking about management. Mr. Grove singles out two of Mr. Drucker's precepts that have stuck with him: That managers should never promote an employee on the basis of his or her potential, but based only on performance; and that managers should make a decision "no later than you need it, but as late as possible, because you always have more information." Mr. Drucker's lessons still resonate with a younger generation of managers. Mike Zafirovski, 51, who begins work tomorrow as chief executive of Nortel Networks Corp., never met Mr. Drucker, but says the author had a "huge influence" on him. Reading Mr. Drucker's books, Mr. Zafirovski says he was persuaded by the argument that companies should "treat employees like their most valuable resources, including pushing decision making to the lowest levels." --Carol Hymowitz and Erin White contributed to this article. Theory & Practice is a weekly look at people and ideas influencing managers. 2005/10/25 Bernanke Picked by Bush to Succeed Greenspan at Fed (Update7)Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Ben S. Bernanke, chief White House economist and a former Federal Reserve governor, was named by President George W. Bush to succeed Alan Greenspan as Fed chairman. ``Ben Bernanke is the right man to build on the record Alan Greenspan has established,'' Bush said today as the men stood by his side in the Oval Office. The economist, currently chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, ``commands deep respect in the global financial community.'' Bernanke, 51, said his first task will be to ensure continuity as he replaces the man Bush today called a ``legend.'' The former Princeton professor, who was on the Fed from 2002 until June, may champion the move toward greater openness, possibly including a numeric inflation target, and keep it raising rates to counter rising prices, economists said. ``He will put an emphasis on a more predictable format for Federal Reserve monetary policy,'' said William Ford, former president of the Fed Bank of Atlanta. Bernanke's first challenges include establishing credibility with investors and Congress and showing that he, like Greenspan, has what it takes to keep the economy on keel during crises. Greenspan, who is 79 and will leave the Fed when his term as governor expires Jan. 31, gave Bernanke his seal of approval. ``The president has made a distinguished appointment in Ben Bernanke,'' Greenspan said today. ``Ben comes with superb academic credentials and important insights into the ways our economy functions.'' First Priority Bush's decision to tap Bernanke as chief White House economist in June was widely seen as grooming him to replace Greenspan. Bernanke led surveys as both a qualified and likely choice for successor. ``He's got the right pedigree,'' said Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist for Lehman Brothers Inc. That said, ``you're replacing an icon with a mere mortal, and he's going to have to prove himself in the job.'' Greenspan maneuvered the economy through two stock-market collapses, in 1987 and 2000, and two recessions, in 1990-91 and in 2001. The expansion in between was the longest in history. ``If I am confirmed to this position, my first priority will be to maintain continuity with the policies and policy strategies established during the Greenspan years,'' Bernanke said today. Confirmation Process Bush, who has two Fed vacancies left to fill, will become the first president since Ronald Reagan to appoint or reappoint all seven board members. Bush is nominating Bernanke for a 14-year term as governor and a separate four-year term as chairman, and he may help shape the Fed by influencing Bush's picks. The Fed chairmanship is subject to Senate confirmation. Banking Committee Chairman Richard Shelby, an Alabama Republican, said today he expects Bernanke to be ``well-received by all members of our committee.'' A spokesman for the committee said he expects a hearing before Congress adjourns this year, and Shelby said in an interview that ``we're going to move it as fast as we can and are awaiting the paperwork.'' As a Fed governor for almost three years starting in 2002, Bernanke helped re-charge its research agenda. He reached out to junior staff economists in informal cafeteria seminars and through speeches on communication policies and alternative steps the Fed could use to ward off deflation. Bernanke must now convince bond markets that he is an inflation fighter. It will be a tough task: None of his predecessors faced markets that move as quickly on instant information as they do today. Fed Rates Even as the Fed has lifted the benchmark lending rate 11 times over the past 15 months off the lowest levels in 46 years, inflation, by every measure, has moved higher. Most economists in a Bloomberg News monthly survey predict the rate will rise to 4.5 percent by the end of the first quarter from 3.75 percent now. U.S. 10-year Treasury notes fell after today's nomination. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note rose 7 basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 4.45 percent at 4:20 p.m. in New York. ``The selloff was not an expression of dissatisfaction with the choice, but merely a reflection of the uncertainty going forward,'' said Bill Gross, chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California. The Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index rose 1.7 percent. Bernanke today won an endorsement from his main rival for the post, Harvard University professor Martin Feldstein, who finished second when 104 financial professionals were asked last month to name Greenspan's most likely successor. Bernanke got 38 percent of the vote and Feldstein 31 percent in the poll by Stone & McCarthy Research Associates of Princeton, New Jersey. Inflation Targeting ``I've known Ben for many years,'' Feldstein said today in an interview. ``He has done a great deal of research at the Fed. He will do an excellent job.'' Bernanke is an advocate of setting an inflation target, or specifying a numerical goal for prices. The Federal Open Market Committee debated the strategy as early as February and decided to defer the discussion. Economists said Bernanke is unlikely to push the idea immediately, in part because both Governors Roger Ferguson Jr. and Donald Kohn are opposed. ``This is obviously an issue on which knowledgeable and reasonable people can disagree,'' former Fed Governor Susan Phillips said in an interview. ``I don't think he will be in a position to move overnight.'' Handling Congress Bernanke once named his personal range for desirable inflation, as measured by the so-called core personal consumption expenditure price index, which omits food and fuel costs. A target in the range of 1 to 2 percent a year ``might be a good initial choice,'' he said during his confirmation hearing as a governor on July 18, 2002. By that measure, inflation was at the top of his target for the 12 months ended in August. Bernanke must also gain credibility among lawmakers. For much of the past decade, Greenspan received praise during his appearances, and congressmen rarely challenged the Fed's policies. Since he started his White House job on June 21, Bernanke has testified twice before Congress and given five speeches on non- controversial subjects. ``We need a careful, non-ideological person who understands that the Federal Reserve's main job is to fight inflation and Ben Bernanke seems to fit that bill,'' Senator Charles Schumer, a New York Democrat, said in a statement. Bernanke has shown he's agile under questioning from members of Congress, particularly on issues that Democrats support, such as a higher minimum wage. Fed's Dual Mandate Asked in May by Maryland Senator Paul Sarbanes, a Democrat, whether he would take back what he wrote in a 1991 textbook that increasing the minimum wage would have only minor economic drawbacks, Bernanke replied: ``No, senator, I've just become more uncertain.'' Bernanke will have to at least express concern about jobs and growth in his nomination hearing, and, if confirmed, during his semi-annual testimony in February. Unlike many of the world's central banks, the Fed has two mandates: stable prices as well as sustained growth that will result in low unemployment. Delivering on the expansion will be tricky. Economists expect U.S. growth to slow, even as inflation expectations rise in the aftermath of a 51 percent increase in retail gasoline prices this year. Fed officials have made it clear they intend to keep leaning against inflation by pushing up the federal funds rate, even after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita hurt third-quarter growth prospects. Selection Process The president called Bernanke from Air Force One on Oct. 21 to discuss the nomination and offered him the post in the Oval Office at about 7:15 a.m. today, spokesman Scott McClellan said in an e-mailed statement. Bush's nominating committee consulted academics, Wall Street executives, business leaders and lawmakers from both parties in Congress in a search that McClellan said began in late April. The initial list had more than 20 names, and Bush met with the search committee several times and sought advice from Greenspan on the qualifications needed. The nominating committee included Vice President Dick Cheney; Chief of Staff Andy Card; National Economic Adviser Al Hubbard; Liza Wright, an aide for presidential personnel; and I. Lewis ``Scooter'' Libby, Cheney's chief of staff. Bernanke graduated summa cum laude from Harvard University in 1975 with a bachelor's degree in economics. He received his doctorate in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1979. He became a ``star'' teacher at Princeton and will use those personal skills in managing the Fed staff and working with the governors, said Kenneth Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard who has known Bernanke for 30 years. ``You are getting a continuation as if Greenspan was there,'' said Rogoff, who also is a former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund. ``He has the confidence to continue Greenspan's policies, but as the world changes, react to those changes as thoughtfully as Greenspan would.'' 2005/10/23 Finance Firms Accelerating Their Moves Into Chinafrom The New York Times, Business
Published: October 22, 2005
BEIJING, Oct. 20 - After years of hesitancy and half-hearted attempts to break into the Chinese market, American and European financial services companies are investing billions of dollars here in the hopes of reaping huge profits from China's rapid economic rise. Wall Street firms and some of the world's biggest banks and financial services companies, including Bank of America and American Express, have already invested more than $20 billion over the last three years in joint ventures or strategic stakes in dozens of Chinese banks, brokerage houses and insurance companies. With China promising further changes and an opening of its financial markets, some of the world's biggest stock and futures exchanges, including the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, are convinced that a growing number of big stock listings and futures or derivatives trading will soon come from the mainland. This year alone, Bank of America put $3 billion into the China Construction Bank; a group of investors led by the Royal Bank of Scotland and Merrill Lynch invested $3.1 billion in the Bank of China; a Goldman Sachs-led group is investing $3 billion in the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China; and Temasek Holdings of Singapore has agreed to invest more than $4 billion in two Chinese banks. The accelerated push acknowledges that China has become a focal point of global commerce: it is the world's fastest-growing major economy, and its huge trade surplus and huge foreign currency reserves are solidifying its status as an economic superpower. Of course, China's financial markets are still relatively immature. Its banking system is rife with corruption and corporate governance is poor; its stock market is depressed and seemingly broken; its brokerage houses are insolvent; and its managed currency elicits outrage overseas because of trade disputes. And yet, there is a growing sense around the world that now is the time to invest or to begin creating a platform to offer financial services products and lay the groundwork for more cross-border deals with the Chinese. "Everyone's jockeying to get a piece of what they hope is the big growth industry," says Jonathan Anderson, chief Asian economist for UBS. One indication of the importance of the marketplace here was this week's visits of Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve chairman; John W. Snow, the Treasury secretary; Christopher Cox, the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission; and Reuben Jeffrey 3d, the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The delegation of government officials and executives repeatedly referred to the far-reaching changes that have taken place in China. They praised the Chinese government and said they expected further openings as China moves toward becoming a full-fledged market economy. They also met with top leaders, including Prime Minister Wen Jiabao and the head of China's central bank, Zhou Xiaochuan. But the American officials also pressed for China to let its currency appreciate further and to lift restrictions on foreign investing in China, like limits on stakes in brokerage firms and banks. "We clearly see the momentum," Marc E. Lackritz, president of the Securities Industry Association, said here. "In the long run, this is the growth opportunity." Underlying the visit of so many high-level American officials is a realization that the American trade deficit is widening, and that, to some degree, purchases of American homes and sport utility vehicles are being partly financed by China, which is using its huge foreign exchange reserves to buy United States Treasury securities, thereby holding down interest rates. For years, of course, big banks, insurance companies and Wall Street firms have been coming to China seeking riches. But most have been disappointed by the results. Still, over the last few years, deals like Lenovo's acquisition of the personal computer unit of I.B.M. and the $1 billion cash investment by Yahoo in Alibaba.com, as well as this year's banking rush, suggest that China has turned a corner. The list of big investors is growing more impressive. Lately, officials from Citigroup, ABN Amro, Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribas have been prowling China for financial services investments, and committing billions of dollars to new deals. Allianz of Germany and HSBC are moving to enter China's credit card market. The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq are scouting for new stock listings. And a few weeks ago, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, one of the world's biggest futures and derivatives exchanges, was host of a conference in Shanghai. With so much activity, many analysts are warning of a bubble here. They say, often not for attribution, that venture capital firms, banks and others are bidding up the prices of Chinese assets to ridiculous levels and that major companies are putting staggering amounts of cash into risky ventures with suspect books. Everyone, they say, is traveling to China these days. And everyone in the financial services world seems to have caught China fever. 2005/9/22 For Google, Another Stormy ChapterNEWS ANALYSIS from BusinessWeek Online
By Burt Helm Fuzzy copyright laws leave plenty of room for controversy -- and a new lawsuit -- over the search engine's right to scan books Google's (GOOG ) plan to index millions of library books online rankled some authors and publishers from the start. Companies such as Random House (VIA ) and publishing groups including the Association of American University Publishers cried foul over what they said would constitute a large-scale rights violation. Advertisement
Just how onerous some writers find the so-called Print for Libraries initiative was made plain on Sept. 20, when a group of authors sued the search giant. By creating and keeping digital copies of scanned books in order to attract Web site visitors, Google is "engaging in massive copyright infringement," says the complaint, which was filed in the U.S. District Court in New York and requests class-action status. HANGING TOUGH. Further, the complaint demands that Google pay damages for each infringement, and asks the court for an injunction prohibiting the company from scanning copyrighted books without explicit permission.
The plaintiffs consist of authors Herbert Mitgang, Betty Miles, and Daniel Hoffman, and the Authors Guild trade group, an associational plaintiff. Google says it received the complaint on the afternoon of Sept. 20 afternoon. "We're going to defend against this lawsuit vigorously" says David Drummond, Google's general counsel. "We believe it has no merit."
The legal action comes as yet another setback to Google's goal of serving as a clearinghouse of a wide range of global information, legal scholars say. In addition to its publishing woes, Google has also drawn the ire of TV networks for its Google Video, which records and stores TV programs.
SPATE OF SUITS. In March, Agence France-Presse filed a suit seeking copyright infringement damages after Google put AFP headlines, photos, and story summaries on its news search page. And on Aug. 24, Perfect 10, an adult-entertainment company, filed a copyright infringement suit against Google because it put thumbnails of Perfect 10 photos on its search site. (Google has agreed to take down the links to the AFP's content.)
Worse, the authors' lawsuit adds to opposition that could derail a main component of Google's publishing effort. As part of Google Print, a plan to index millions of books, Google's Print for Libraries involves scanning copyrighted texts from three major libraries, including the entire holdings of the University of Michigan.
Google would then make parts of those books available via its search tools. Tension has been mounting since Google announced the libraries program in December. While the company was widely applauded for its plan to index library books in the public domain, the project started to vex publishers and authors when it became apparent that Google also planned to scan the books without seeking copyright holders' permission.
SHORT PAUSE. In the months following, publishers including Random House, Houghton-Mifflin, and John Wiley & Sons sent Google letters expressing concerns over the program. On May 20, the Association of American University Publishers sent its own letter, saying it felt "alarm and concern at a plan that appears to involve systematic infringement of copyright on a massive scale" (see BW Online, 5/23/05, "A Google Project Pains Publishers").
In June, the Association of American Publishers, the principal trade organization for commercial publishers, sent its own letter to Google, requesting a six-month moratorium on the project.
The breaking point, however, came after an Aug. 11 posting by Google executive Adam Smith to the Google blog, says Paul Aiken, the Guild's executive director. In that posting, Smith announced that Google would pause scanning until Nov. 1 in order to give copyright holders a chance to opt out of the print project if they chose to do so (see BW Online, 8/12/05, "Google's Plan Doesn't Scan").
"THE DON'T HAVE THE RIGHT." Although many onlookers interpreted the move as an act of goodwill by Google, authors and publishers saw red. The plan was almost identical to one that publishers had already rejected -- after Google Chief Executive Eric Schmidt proposed it during a July 1 meeting, according to Alan Adler, general counsel for the Association of American Publishers, and it ignored the counteroffer publishers had proposed just a few days earlier.
The "opt-out" notion stood out as particularly perturbing. "That's no compromise," says Aiken, "They don't have the right to determine copyright in that matter."
Pat Schroeder, chief executive of the Association of American Publishers, expressed a similar sentiment in a statement following the Aug. 11 announcement. "Google's procedure shifts the responsibility for preventing infringement to the copyright owner rather than the user," Shroeder said, "turning every principle of copyright law on its ear."
SOME STILL SILENT. While publishers wondered aloud whether negotiations could continue following Aug. 11, the Authors Guild decided enough was enough. "It became plain that Google was planning on going ahead even with the complaint of publishers," says Aiken, "We would have nowhere near the same amount of leverage [as] publishers, so we had to pursue a class action [lawsuit]."
Still, there's a chance some publishers will reach an amicable solution. Some have been in negotiations with Google throughout the summer, Schroeder says. Representatives from several publishing houses, meanwhile, would neither confirm nor deny whether their legal teams were gearing up for possible litigation.
The meat of the suit will pertain to what, exactly, constitutes "fair use," a clause in the Copyright Act that allows for the reproduction of portions of copyrighted text for specific purposes, including research.
MURKY AREA. For its part, Google has said that, to comply with fair use, it plans to show only a few sentences of text from copyrighted works on its search page. "We're essentially creating a card catalog," says Drummond. Publishers and authors say this is beside the point. Their argument: Making a digital copy of the entire book, keeping it on a Google server, and using it for commercial purposes violates the very nature of a copyright.
Intellectual-property lawyers admit there is a lot of room for interpretation. "Fair use is very murky here," says Jonathan Zittrain, chair of Internet Governance and Regulation at Oxford University. "We really don't have firm guidance from prior cases."
Joel Beres, an intellectual-property attorney for Louisville (Ky.)-based law firm Stites & Harbison, says he believes that Google has a "good argument" for fair use, since it seems unlikely that Google's use will adversely affect the market for book sales.
FAIR-USE ARGUMENT. "Essentially they are creating an index, which is something you could legitimately walk into a library and do," says Beres. The fact that Google is a for-profit company and would keep its own digital copy was "more problematic," because it owns neither the copyright nor the physical work, he says.
As far as the opt-out provision, Google maintains that it is providing it as a courtesy. "Copyright law says there are certain things [for which] you have to get permission from the copyright holder, and in some you don't" says Drummond. "This is one where you don't -- it's our fair use to use [scan the books]."
If neither Google nor publishers can reach common ground on that point, that courtesy could torpedo any hope of a peaceful resolution. 2005/9/21 Interest Rate Up, Stocks DownBy REUTERS
Published: September 20, 2005 Filed at 10:39 p.m. ET Fed Raises Short-Term Interest Rate by .25 Percent
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve raised U.S. interest rates on Tuesday for an 11th straight time, signaling more increases to come and saying Hurricane Katrina will provide only a temporary setback to the broad economy.
Skip to next paragraph But Fed Board Governor Mark Olson dissented from the rate-rise vote, saying he preferred to hold borrowing costs steady. This was the first such dissent since June 2003.Market Committee opted to increase the benchmark federal funds rate charged on overnight loans between banks a quarter of a percentage point to 3.75 percent.
In a statement outlining its decision, the Fed said U.S. spending, production and employment will suffer a near-term knock from Katrina and that energy prices may be elevated and volatile.
``While these unfortunate developments have increased uncertainty about near-term economic performance, it is the committee's view that they do not pose a more persistent threat,'' the FOMC said in a statement.
Analysts said that while policy-makers clearly served notice they were not yet done raising rates, there were reasons to think they might be getting close to it.
``This summer's energy shock will cascade through the economy. A brutal winter heating season can't be ruled out. Detroit is losing steam,'' said Sung Won Sohn, chief executive officer of Hanmi Bank in San Francisco.
He predicted one more rate rise, to 4 percent, at the next scheduled FOMC meeting on November 1, and then a ``wait and see'' pause.
Similarly, economist Julian Jessop of London-based Capital Economics anticipated that ``rates will rise by one last quarter percentage point in November, before a return to below-trend growth keeps them on hold at 4 percent throughout 2006.''
A Reuters poll of economists at 21 primary dealers, the biggest Wall Street firms that deal directly with the Fed, found 19 of them anticipating another quarter percentage point rate hike in November.
Investors braced for higher borrowing costs.
The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 76.11 points to end at 10,481.52 while the high-tech Nasdaq composite index lost 13.93 points and ended at 2,131.33.
Prices for short-term U.S. Treasury debt declined. The two-year note dropped 4/32s to yield 3.99 percent. The five-year note also was off 4/32s and yielded 4.06 percent. But the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond added 13/32s and was yielding 4.53 percent.
The fed funds rate now stands at its highest level since June 2001, though market-set long-term rates remain low by historical standards.
``Higher energy and other costs have the potential to add to inflation pressures. However, core inflation has been relatively low in recent months and longer-term inflation expectations remain contained,'' the Fed said.the damage wrought by Katrina might prompt a hiatus in the rate-rise campaign had died down and an increase was widely expected.
The hurricane that struck August 29 killed more than 900 people in five states and disrupted oil production and distribution. The estimated cost of rebuilding has run as high as $200 billion or more.
Some data have shown that consumer confidence and spending suffered in the immediate wake of the storm. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to a 13-year low in September and other surveys have shown U.S. chain-store sales under pressure.
Costlier energy is one factor making the Fed wary.
Oil prices, already high before Katrina, jumped to a record $70.85 a barrel right after the storm. On Tuesday they slipped to around $66, although a new storm approaching the Florida Keys was worrying traders.
The U.S. economy is still growing despite higher oil prices, but the Fed is keeping a close watch to see how costlier energy is affecting broader prices.
In the statement outlining its action, the Fed said with appropriate monetary policy, upside and downside risks to its twin goals of sustainable growth and price stability should remain ``roughly equal.''
In concert with its action on the key overnight rate, the Fed lifted the largely symbolic discount rate a matching quarter-point to 4.75 percent.
Stocks Decline After Fed Raises Rates
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the 11th time and signaled more are on the way, hurting shares of companies sensitive to higher borrowing costs, including homebuilders like D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI.N).
Skip to next paragraph Based on the latest available data, the blue-chip Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) was down 76.19 points, or 0.72 percent, to close unofficially at 10,481.44. The broad Standard & Poor's 500 index (.SPX) was down 9.61 points, or 0.78 percent, to finish at 1,221.41. The technology-laced Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) was down 13.92 points, or 0.65 percent, to close at 2,131.34. 2005/9/20 Hong Kong Must Move Toward Democracy, U.S.'s Cunningham SaysSept. 20 (Bloomberg) -- James B. Cunningham, the new U.S. consul-general in Hong Kong, called on the Chinese city to move toward democracy, tighten intellectual property enforcement and consider enacting antitrust laws.
The exact nature of progress toward democracy is a matter for Hong Kong and China's central government, Cunningham said in a speech to the American Chamber of Commerce in the city, his first public address since taking up the post last month.
``With its high degree of personal freedom, its prosperity, its experience with good governance, and strong rule of law, Hong Kong enjoys tremendous advantages that no other society in transition to democracy has enjoyed,'' Cunningham said.
China has ruled out full democracy in Hong Kong until 2012 at the earliest. Hong Kong's government has promised increased democracy for elections in 2007 and 2008 within the guidelines set down by the national government.
Only half of Hong Kong's 60-seat legislature is chosen by direct elections, with the balance of members chosen by special interest groups. Chief Executive Donald Tsang was chosen by an 800-member committee effectively under China's control.
Cunningham also called on Hong Kong to amend its copyright law to increase penalties for users of pirated products, and to link drug registration to patents to prevent the use of unauthorized generic medicines.
Hong Kong should study enacting antitrust laws, because a more competitive environment would attract more investment, Cunningham said. He also called on the city to deregulate air transport to match steps taken elsewhere in Asia.
North Korea, Macau
The U.S. and Hong Kong are in talks about allowing the resumed import of American beef to the city, which banned it because of concern about bovine spongiform disorder, Cunningham said in response to a question after the speech.
On North Korea, Cunningham said the agreement reached in six- party talks in Beijing yesterday was important because it sets down in writing the principles to be followed in resolving the dispute over North Korea's nuclear weapons program.
``While that document sets out what the goal is, there are very many details that need to be worked out, including the timing and sequence of events,'' Cunningham said. He declined to comment on a North Korean statement today that the country won't give up nuclear weapons before receiving nuclear reactors.
On Macau, Cunningham said the U.S. has evidence of illicit acts by Banco Delta Asia involving North Korea. He declined to give details and said he had a good discussion last week with Macau Chief Executive Edmund Ho on strengthening the monitoring of the city's banks. Banco Delta Asia has denied engaging in any illegal actions.
To contact the reporter for this story: Joshua Fellman in Hong Kong at jfellman@bloomberg.net Last Updated: September 20, 2005 03:48 EDT 2005/9/19 Murdoch Says News Corp. Has Hit a `Brick Wall' in ChinaSept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- News Corp. Chairman Rupert Murdoch said his company has hit a ``brick wall in China,'' after the government reversed a policy of relaxing controls on international media organizations.
``A year ago I would have said there's a lot of opening up going on,'' Murdoch, 74, said at a media conference in New York on Sept. 16. ``The present trend is the reverse.'' Authorities are ``quite paranoid about what gets through,'' he said.
Officials in China are investigating News Corp. for alleged cooperation with unapproved local cable networks, the Wall Street Journal reported last month, citing an executive at the company's Star TV unit. News Corp., Viacom Inc. and other media companies want to expand in China, where the TV advertising sales market is forecast to grow a third to $24 billion this year.
``The Chinese are doing everything they can to manage the message,'' Richard Parsons, chief executive of Time Warner Inc., said at the forum, which was hosted by former U.S. President Bill Clinton and included Sony Corp. Chief Executive Howard Stringer. ``They are opening up in their own time and at their own speed.''
Still, there is a limit to how much the Chinese government can control the influx of foreign content, Murdoch said, citing the availability of cheap pirate copies of Hollywood movies in China -- often before they are released in theaters in the U.S.
``They can see in these films how Americans live, how people live in other parts of the world,'' he said. ``They are a very intelligent people. That's got to have a lasting effect which the government can't control.''
`Unambiguous Threat'
The bluntness of Murdoch's remarks echoes comments he made in 1993, when the News Corp. chairman said telecommunications advances presented ``an unambiguous threat to totalitarian regimes everywhere.''
He subsequently tried to placate China, removing the BBC World Service from Star TV, and declining in 1998 to let News Corp. subsidiary HarperCollins publish a book by the former Hong Kong Governor Chris Patten, who was criticized by China.
New York-based News Corp. bought Star TV in 1993 from Richard Li, the son of Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing, Asia's richest businessman. Star TV is allowed to broadcast only to hotels and selected residential compounds in the nation.
News Corp. planned to spend tens of millions of dollars on a complicated joint venture to lease some operations of a local broadcaster in China's northwest province of Qinghai, the Journal reported on Aug. 25. The plan unraveled after a local official was reassigned and the venture prompted pressure from other foreign broadcasters for similar deals, the report said.
Controls Tightened
Murdoch's comments follow the tightening of controls on TV ventures earlier this year, the charging of Hong Kong-based reporter Ching Cheong with spying last month, and the disclosure by Yahoo! Inc. that it passed documents to the Chinese government that led to the conviction of a local journalist.
The News Corp. chairman criticized the decision by Yahoo to release the documents. Yahoo co-founder Jerry Yang said the company had no choice because the government asked for the documents and backed up its request with a court order.
``I think they were wrong,'' Murdoch said. ``You cannot do that in news.''
China's government in November said it would let foreign investors take stakes in TV production companies for the first time, allowing them to hold as much as 49 percent. News Corp. was negotiating with potential partners and planned to announce a deal within six months, Jamie Davis, president of News Corp. China, said at the time.
The government has since tightened rules on such investments, limiting most foreign companies to one venture and banning ``unfriendly'' companies, the Financial Times reported in March, citing the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television.
Time Warner, Lenovo
Viacom, the third-largest U.S. media company, in March 2004 became the first overseas investor to take a stake in a Chinese TV production company, forming a venture with Shanghai Media Group to make children's programs.
Some overseas media ventures in China have disappointed. Time Warner Inc., the world's largest media company, withdrew from a $50 million Internet venture with Lenovo Group Ltd., then known as Legend, after demand failed to meet expectations.
The ``straw that broke the camel's back'' was the government's insistence that it had the right to monitor all traffic on the service, Time Warner's Parsons said.
``You're given lists of words that you have to block through your service, like democracy,'' he said. ``We bailed out.''
Time Warner thought about ``what we would look like here in the U.S. if we agreed to a governmentally imposed regime where words like democracy had to be blocked,'' Parsons said. ``We made a judgment that it wasn't a market that we wanted to enter in this way at this time.''
Microsoft Corp., the world's biggest software maker, was criticized in June by Reporters Without Borders, a group that campaigns for press freedom, after it agreed to block words such as ``democracy'' from its MSN service in China.
To contact the reporter on this story: Ron Rhodes in Tokyo at at Rrhodes3@bloomberg.net Last Updated: September 19, 2005 01:25 EDT 2005/9/17 U.S. Stance Means N. Korea Will Keep Nuclear Program (Update1)Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- North Korea will keep its nuclear weapons program going if the U.S. doesn't agree to allow it to build internationally funded light-water nuclear reactors, North Korean spokesman Hyun Hak Bong said.
Sovereignty Issue
2005/9/16 Koizumi Says `Changed' World Justifies Japan Seat on UN Security CouncilSept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi told heads of state and ambassadors in New York the United Nations no longer reflects a ``changed'' world and urged them to give Japan a seat on the Security Council. ``We need an effective United Nations that reflects our aspirations and standards of today's world, not those of 60 years ago,'' Koizumi said during a speech at the UN. ``In a reformed council, Japan is ready to play a larger role as a permanent member.'' Japan has made securing permanent membership on the Security Council the central goal of its diplomacy this year as it marks the 60th anniversary of its defeat in World War II and wants its designation at the international body as an ``enemy state'' deleted. Koizumi today said he wants the UN to approve the change during this session. Japan has allied itself with Germany, India and Brazil, which are also seeking permanent seats on the UN's most powerful panel. The group, which has dubbed itself the G4, has proposed expanding the core membership of the council from five to 11. The U.S. government backs only Japan's bid for a permanent seat, and may support one other country for such a slot. The 15-member Security Council, including the five permanent members, was established at the end of World War II and has the power to order economic sanctions or military action against nations deemed aggressors. Japan's Money Japan, which will need the backing of all the current permanent members, the U.S., China, Russia, the U.K. and France, for any expansion, says its contribution to the UN's budget qualifies it for a seat. Japan pays for 19 percent of the UN's costs, second to the U.S., which accounts for 22 percent. The G4 has so far failed to win backing for their proposed changes. The UN on Sept. 13 agreed on a declaration of steps to restructure the world body that 150 world leaders will be asked to adopt tomorrow. While the document says the Security Council should be ``more broadly representative, efficient and transparent,'' it doesn't give any detail on expansion of the 15- member panel or say which nations will get new seats. The declaration also has commitments to UN Millennium Development Goals including a halving of world poverty by 2015, and a target for industrialized nations such as Japan, the world's second-largest economy, to allocate 0.7 percent of their gross national products to development aid. ``We need a caring United Nations that reaches out to those who struggle with extreme poverty,'' Koizumi said at the UN. Terrorism Role Koizumi, who earlier today at the UN signed the International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism, said he wants the international body to take a more active role in bolstering global security and fighting terrorism. ``We need a strong United Nations that lays a path toward peace building and takes an active role in the fight against terrorism,'' Koizumi said. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Hu Jintao sounded a similar theme in their remarks to the General Assembly today. Koizumi and other heads of state and government are in New York to mark the 60th anniversary of the UN's creation. Koizumi met with Secretary-General Kofi Annan for talks before giving his speech. The Japanese leader, who on Sept. 11 led his ruling Liberal Democratic Party to a landslide win in national elections to pick 480 lower-house lawmakers, will return to Japan today to ready for an extraordinary session of the nation's parliament next week. The session will approve the sale of state-run postal services. To contact the reporters on this story: Tim Kelly in New York at at tikelly@bloomberg.net Last Updated: September 15, 2005 19:21 EDT |
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